Human Super-Forecaster at Mercor

Human Super-Forecaster | $200–400/hr | Remote Worldwide

Join a leading AI Lab developing next-generation decision-intelligent systems. Apply your expert forecasting skills to collaborate with AI researchers, training and refining models that make probabilistic predictions about strategic events, market shifts, and complex uncertainties.

Responsibilities

• Work closely with AI research teams to generate, train, and validate human-anchored forecasts on key strategic questions, scenario outcomes, and emerging risks
• Apply rigorous probabilistic reasoning, structured judgment, and quantitative techniques to enhance both human and machine forecasting accuracy
• Evaluate AI models' forecasts for coherence, calibration, and alignment with structured human judgment — provide expert feedback on model errors and biases
• Design, participate in, and review forecasting experiments and challenge frameworks, focused on turning strategic uncertainty into actionable insight
• Participate in synchronous collaboration sessions (4-hour windows, 2–3 times per week) to review forecast portfolios, debate scenarios, refine judgments, and align human-machine reasoning

Requirements

• Advanced degree or extensive professional experience in Forecasting, Decision Science, Economics, Political Science, Risk Analysis or related field
• Proven track record of making high-quality probabilistic forecasts, scenario analyses, or decision-intelligence insights
• Strong competency in probability, calibration, scenario design, and structured judgment techniques
• Proficiency with forecasting tools, data visualization, or statistical software (e.g., Python, R, Excel) highly valued
• Excellent written and verbal communication, strong analytical reasoning, and collaborative mindset
• Commitment of 20–30 hours per week, including required synchronous collaboration periods

Why Join

• Collaborate with a world-class AI research lab to influence how intelligent systems anticipate strategic events and systemic vulnerabilities
• Shape how AI models understand and simulate human forecasting judgment and uncertainty quantification
• Enjoy schedule flexibility — choose your preferred 4-hour collaboration windows and manage your work week around them
• Work as an hourly contractor through Mercor, granting autonomy over your schedule while contributing to high-impact AI projects
• Collaborate with leading experts in forecasting, decision science, AI, and analytics — bridging human judgment and machine reasoning
• Join a global network of expert forecasters building AI systems grounded in disciplined, accurate forecasting