Political Expert — Elections Forecasting at Mercor

Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk | $150–$250/hr | Worldwide Remote

Join a cutting-edge initiative building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. As a Political Expert, you will author point-in-time reports and forecasts grounded in disciplined, evidence-based reasoning — no hindsight, no data leakage.

What You'll Do

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
• Make and document directional judgments on polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
• Explain causal mechanisms behind events and their expected political and market impact
• Review and grade model-generated analyses against your professional standard

Who We're Looking For

• Senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling/statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst
• Demonstrated track record of live probabilistic judgment — not retrospective commentary
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis skills
• Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or compelling evidence of equivalent performance

Ideal Backgrounds

Top national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, senior analytics teams from presidential, Senate, or gubernatorial races, and political-risk desks at leading institutions such as Eurasia Group or EIU. Brand-name experience is a strong signal, but direct performance on the work sample is the ultimate qualifier.

Not a Fit

Profiles focused purely on communications, journalism, or academia without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment experience.

Important Note

Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated evidence cutoff. Strict discipline around hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, and material non-public information is required at all times.