Political Expert — Elections Forecasting at Mercor

Local Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk | $150–$250/hr | Remote (US)

Mercor is seeking seasoned local political analysts to author expert-level forecasting reports and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models in real political and financial analysis. This is a high-impact contractor role for practitioners with hands-on experience in specific US swing-state races.

What You'll Do

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts based on a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight
• Make and document directional judgments on polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
• Explain the causal mechanisms behind events' expected political and market impact
• Review and grade AI-generated analyses against your own professional standard

Who We're Looking For

• Local political analysts with direct, hands-on experience in current or recent Senate, gubernatorial, or statewide contests in swing states
• Professionals with on-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, candidates, and local political environment — including university political scientists, state/regional pollsters, campaign or party analytics staff, or state-level political risk analysts
• A demonstrated record of making live probabilistic judgments about polling and win probabilities — not retrospective commentary
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis skills
• Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or compelling evidence of equivalent performance

Preferred Backgrounds

Political science departments and survey research centers at state universities, state and regional polling firms, campaign and party analytics teams, and decision desks or race-ratings outlets with state-specific coverage. National forecasting experience is a plus when paired with deep state-level expertise.

Not a Fit

• Profiles focused primarily on international politics, geopolitics, or country risk with little US race experience
• Analysts without current or recent work on US races in the state they would cover
• Pure communications or journalism backgrounds without demonstrated forecasting or probabilistic judgment
• Academic profiles with purely theoretical work and no live-race analysis

All tasks are graded on reasoning from a stated evidence cutoff. No hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information is permitted.