Peak Sales Forecasting Expert at Mercor

Peak Sales Forecasting Expert | $200–275/hr | Worldwide Remote

We're seeking a senior commercial forecasting expert to build benchmark-quality peak-sales forecasts that drive real-world business development, portfolio, and investment decisions. This role requires someone who has owned forecasts with actual accountability and can define the structural checks and heuristics that separate realistic models from speculative ones.

What You'll Do:

• Write "golden" peak-sales forecasts for representative drug programs using standard prompts
• Define structural checks, scenario logic, and sanity bands for automated forecast evaluations
• Document the heuristics and base-rate assumptions experienced forecasters use to distinguish realistic models from overly optimistic ones
• Create benchmark-quality outputs including peak values, revenue curves, key drivers, and downside risks
• Develop structured evaluation frameworks with clear scoring thresholds

Ideal Candidate Profile:

Industry Commercial Forecaster:

• Director/Sr. Director/VP-level experience in global forecasting, brand planning, or commercial insights
• Built and defended patient-based peak-sales models used in portfolio, BD, or investment contexts
• Experience forecasting for multiple drugs or indications during pre-launch and early commercialization
• Can articulate reasoning behind base-case assumptions (penetration, price, ramp, LOE)
• Has written or reviewed governance-ready peak-sales models for launch committees or investor boards

Market/VC/Buy-side Analyst:

• Senior biotech equity analyst, VC incubation/BD lead, or company creation expert (e.g., Third Rock, ARCH, Versant, RTW, Venrock)
• Built patient-level and revenue models for investment diligence or asset valuation
• Can critique bottoms-up forecasts from an investor's perspective, identifying optimistic biases and false comparables

Required Experience:

• ~10–15 years in biotech/pharma forecasting, investment, or commercial strategy roles
• Experience spanning pre-launch forecasts → post-launch actuals for multiple assets
• Track record of leading global forecasts, long-range revenue planning, or building patient-based forecasts for portfolio decisions
• Strong comfort with market modeling logic (TPP inputs → eligible pool → penetration → price/net → ramp + LOE)
• Ability to articulate where real-world results diverged from base-case assumptions

Deliverables:

• Golden Forecast Output: Benchmark-quality peak-sales forecasts with concise narratives showing realistic vs. inflated scenario calibration
• Forecast Rubric: Structured evaluation framework with critical checks and clear scoring thresholds
• Know-how Layer: Documentation of how experienced forecasters anchor assumptions and identify implausible models

Engagement Model:

Contract/part-time remote position with flexible collaboration alongside data science and evaluation teams.